The SNP’s exponential rise is throwing the British system of government into turmoil
The General Election of 2015 looks set to be an exceptionally good one for the SNP, who look set to not only supplant Labour as the largest party north of the border, but to rout it. Sean Swan argues that this could see considerable change in the way British politics is conducted in future, particularly given their possible involvement in any minority or coalition government emerging from the election.
In 2005 Labour won a General Election on 35.2% of the vote; in 2014 Yes Scotland lost the independence referendum on 44.7%. Arendt Lijphart, states that a key feature of the Westminster system of government is a “disproportional system of elections”. This disproportional electoral system – First Past the Post – could potentially transform the 44.7% referendum Yes vote into 80%+ of Scottish seats in a general election.
The Yes side’s response to defeat was political mobilisation via the SNP, aiming to hold the balance of power following the May general election. By 22 September SNP membership had jumped 70%. Over 18,000 people had joined since the referendum, bringing membership to a record 43,644. By March, membership had reached 100,000, making the SNP the third largest UK party by membership. The SNP today is what Labour once was – a movement.
Alex Salmond resigned as SNP leader and First Minister, to be succeeded in both offices by his highly competent deputy, Nicola Sturgeon. Far from retiring, Salmond is standing in the general election. If Salmond’s resignation was ultimately a tactical repositioning in preparation for a new battle, the same could hardly be said of the dramatic resignation of Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont in October. Lamont explained her resignation in Scottish particularist terms of the failure by the UK Labour leadership to give Scottish Labour more autonomy, adding that Labour in Westminster “do not understand” Scottish politics. Whereas SNP membership was sky-rocketing, Labour were “struggling to get beyond around 13,000”.
The obvious target for a resurgent independence movement is Labour. Not only are Labour the party to beat in Scotland, but Labour had committed what Scots view as something close to an act of gross indecency – during the Referendum campaign they had stood “shoulder to shoulder with the Tories”. The potential cost of associating with the Tories was demonstrated in the 2011 Holyrood elections, when Scots rejected the Lib Dems in protest at their coalition with the Conservatives, costing them 12 of their 17 seats. The referendum had itself been a warning to Labour. Scotland voted No, but Labour heartlands like Glasgow had voted Yes.
The General Election
The predicted outcome of this election is a hung parliament in which the SNP are the third largest party and hold the balance of power. This rules out a single party government and three possible scenarios arise:
1) Honest Labour
A Labour/SNP deal is the easiest fit. Labour is already pledging more powers for the Scottish Parliament. The SNP has said it is willing to do a deal with Labour. Labour have ruled out a coalition, but not a confidence and supply deal. The red line for the SNP is scrapping Trident. This is problematic because in the event of a confidence and supply deal, a Labour government could renew Trident in the face of SNP opposition by relying on Tory support. For the SNP to truly make Trident a red line, they would have to be prepared to trigger a vote of confidence on the issue and potentially bring down a Labour government – a politically dangerous move for the SNP.
For the SNP any deal with Labour would give the lie to the “vote SNP get Tories” claim, and help copper-fasten their position as the dominant party in Scotland. The SNP could force Labour to the left. Policies such as unilateral nuclear disarmament were once (pre-Blair) Labour policies. The SNP would also oppose increased austerity. An SNP/Labour deal might, in short, produce an ‘old Labour’ government. An ‘old’ Labour government sans a majority in England and put in power by the SNP, would inflame the ‘English Question’. Gus O’Donnell, former head of the civil service, argues it “would put the question of Scottish independence back on the agenda”.
Alternatively, Scottish separatism is partially driven by opposition to variants of Thatcherite/New Labour neoliberalism. A leftwing Labour government might see the re-emergence of cross-cleavage cutting left/right politics and provide an acceptable alternative to separatism.
2) Devo Max meets Max EVEL?
A Conservative/SNP deal has been ruled out by the SNP and would normally be considered mutually unconscionable, but is still conceivable. Scotland has nothing to offer the Tories except Labour and SNP MPs, as Vernon Bogdanor points out, many Conservatives “believe that Scotland is another country with which they need not concern themselves”. Furthermore, the West Lothian Question and EVEL provide ammunition to Tory rivals on the right such as UKIP. What if the Tories were to view Scotland as a lost cause?
A ‘divorce settlement’ is imaginable in which full Devo Max – Scottish control over everything except defence and foreign relations – is exchanged for a radical reduction in the voting rights of Scottish MPs in Westminster and/or a reduction in the number of MPs returned from Scotland: call it ‘Max EVEL’. This requires the victory of Tory pragmatism over Unionist ideology, and for the SNP to risk a one-off supping with the Devil in exchange for Devo Max.
But the devil would be in the detail and trust in short supply. The SNP would have uppermost in their minds the fate of the Lib Dems and the (broken) promise of electoral reform following the creation of the Lib Dem-Tory coalition.
3) Alex Salmond, Leader of the Opposition
It is always possible for Labour and the Conservatives to lock out the SNP by doing a deal together. Germany and the Social Democrat/Christian Democrat grand coalition provides an obvious model. (A variant of this already exists in Tory/Labour general election voting pacts). But there are political difficulties here. It would cause a haemorrhaging of Conservative support to UKIP, and of Labour support to the SNP and the Greens. The SNP, as the largest non-Government party, would also become the Official Opposition. A purely Scottish Opposition would put the British Constitution to the torture. It is doubtful, for these and other reasons, whether a Labour/Conservative coalition would be countenanced.
The Systemic crisis
The fundamental question is whether a ‘British’ nation still exists. 62.4% of Scots reject a British national identity, identifying as ‘Scottish only’. A shared party system is central to ‘British’ politics, and if the SNP supplant Labour in Scotland, it will be “harder than ever to talk about ‘British politics’”. A “two-party system”, and “one-party and bare majority cabinets” are another two of Lijphart’s key features of the Westminster system. Both arise from the disproportional electoral system and strongly favour the Tories and Labour. There is little incentive for Labour and Conservatives to reform an electoral system so advantageous to them, but it is difficult to see how a ‘British’ party system can be maintained short of the introduction of PR that would at least see some Tories returned by Scotland.
Of course it would also mean the permanent end of single party government and a two party system (but this may be inevitable anyway, given the decline in the share of the vote won by Labour and Tories combined in recent elections). The current crisis requires something close to Scottish independence or PR or the re-emergence of traditional cross-cleavage cutting left/right politics. None of this is likely, the British crisis will rumble on.
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Note: this post represents the views of the author, and not those of Democratic Audit or the LSE. Please read our comments policy before posting.
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Sean Swan is a Lecturer in Political Science at Gonzaga University, Washington State. He is the author of Official Irish Republicanism, 1962 to 1972.
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I agree that a Labour / SNP deal could potentially further reinforce the SNP position as the dominant party in Scotland for the reasons given, but I disagree with GoD that it would fuel independence. One of the major drivers for independence is English Tory governments – hence the unionists are always more a threat to the union than Labour.
The second scenario is a nightmare for anyone on the English left – has Labour asked David Cameron to rule it out? However, the reason I suspect that the SNP really wouldn’t touch it in any form is that it would fundamentally breach their trust with the left leaning Scottish electorate – it’d be their tuition fee equivalent. Finally, while I believe that the SNP popularity is not just a flash in the pan, there is likely to be some reversion towards the mean whatever happens next.
As Corporal Jones used to say on Dad’s Army “They don’t like it up ’em!” LoL https://t.co/Oco3GEHpe7
RT @scotbot: This is quite a fair analysis of the SNP’s effect on #GE2015, although the headline is somewhat melodramatic.
https://t.co/3VD…
[…] https://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=12455 […]
The SNP’s exponential rise is throwing the British system of government into turmoil https://t.co/oGDeZDUkB5
SNPout #GE15 #GE2015 #voteSNP
Why is their such a big deal in this imperialistic state Britain? Something I think many of us would now love and not just Scotland, the ability to love saying I am Scottish, I live in the British Isles which I share with my lovely neighbours of England and Wales. As an alliance of nations on this bonnie island I’m sure we all want to be able to I’m Scottish, I’m English, I’m Welsh without being called “Nationalists” like it was some dirty word….its not, being proud of your country is a natural thing and antiquated Westminster needs to stop shackling us to an old and useless system of imperialism that is Britain…its not great any more and I’d rather be 3 proud Nations of British Isles where we watch each others backs that constant bickering. Let there be the parliament in London but bring it up to date for the people who pay the wages of those twisting and turning the truth to suit to keep their well paid jobs and perks whilst the rest of us suffer and struggle! Get rid of that obscenity that is called the Lords and the greedy sods that have a nice wee earner whilst our retired folk just get by!
“Alex Salmond, Leader of the Opposition”
You mean Angus Robertson really though?
Why? Do you think the people of Gordon are going to vote Lib Dem?
Ah someone with an analysis of this general election that actually catches the mood, get’s the point, handles the… https://t.co/dgGVVI1hjE
“SNP’s exponential rise is throwing the British system of govt into turmoil”
That there is a ‘British system of government’ is an assumption without much sense of reality
https://t.co/4cO8Web6Rm ‘The #SNP exponential rise is throwing The British system of Government into turmoil’ #GE2015 #Scotland
Unquestionably the best analysis I have seen in a long time. Sean Swan seems to have a handle on the SNP and Scottish politics such as is vanishingly rare in the British media.
more and more people seem to see the SNP as the best thing to happen for this GE. https://t.co/V1K0Hauog1
The SNP’s exponential rise is throwing the British system of government into turmoil : Democratic Audit UK https://t.co/Kcuw8sFWQL
RT @LabourOutOfScot: The SNP’s exponential rise is throwing the British system of government into turmoil https://t.co/oGDeZDUkB5
#SNPout #…
@JonathanEley Great isn’t it! “SNP’s exponential rise is throwing the British system of govt into turmoil” https://t.co/iEaOX65IDe #GE2015
The SNP’s exponential rise is throwing the British system of government into turmoil #SNP #GE15 #voteSNP https://t.co/6iDdmj3KoL
The SNP’s exponential rise is throwing the British system of government into turmoil https://t.co/YbdkzgczBw
The SNP’s exponential rise is throwing the British system of government into turmoil https://t.co/iEaOX65IDe #GE15 #GE15 #bbcdp
It is truly astonishing how the democratic votes of the Scottish people have got the knickers of the cosy Tory/LibDem/Labour cartel in such a twist.
Tory/LibDem coalition…OK.
Tory/Ukip coalition…OK.
Labour/LibDem coalition…OK.
But Anyone/SNP coalition…most certainly not OK!
Democracy in the UK is a sham.
Westminster politicians have made it clear that the status quo is the only acceptable position for them, and in adopting this view they are expressing their thinly veneered contempt for the Scottish electorate.
The SNP show equal contempt to the English. The have every intention of interfering in English affairs if they get a chance.
Good feature that is well informed and well formed – unlike so much material in the London-centric UK media.
I’d like to suggest another, but less examined, aspect. That is the impact of Scotland’s moving out on the sense of identity for those describing themselves as ‘English’ within the UK. Last year during the Scottish independence referendum I was invited by the BBC to monitor for a week their flagship current affairs programme Radio 4 Today. I suspect their expectation was that I might solely comment on coverage of the referendum from London. In the event my main finding was the paucity of news from across the UK outwith London and its hinterland. Indeed I pointed up the (IMO) disproportionate coverage of news items from the USA;. Some of these items were IMO specious and of minor interest compared with other topical matters in non-metropolitan London at the time. One outcome was the support I later received from listeners in England – in what is faintly disparagingly called ‘the regions’. Their testimonies supported the conclusions of Channel 4 TV news reporter Jon Snow. The much respected Snow undertook a bit of a short odyssey in Scotland during the referendum. He concluded there was ‘a visceral hatred of Westminster’ (Westminster being the London based UK Parliament). It’s important to note he spoke of hatred of ‘Westminster’, not of England, or the English, or Britain.
The responses to my comments on the Radio 4 programme seem to imply that a degree of that ‘hatred’ exists in England’s ‘regions’. Wither England after Scotland?
Your point about England is well made. I suspect it is only the lack of any clearly defined border (or difference in nationality), that is preventing the emergence of some sort of north of England separatism. The UK is basically divided between the City dominated south-east and the rest (which is not to say there isn’t plenty of deprivation in London itself, there certainly is).
Your point about the English regions, particularly the north of England, is a good one. I’d warrant that if the north had a clearly defined regional boundary (or, better, a distinct nationality) opposition to London dominated politics would take the form of separatism there too. That’s not to say there isn’t deprivation in London too (there certainly is) just that the power and interests of the City are all pervasive in British politics to the detriment of evrywhere outside the South East
Coverage of the Scottish referendum was non stop in England even though we English had no input to the result. Let’s have a referendum on English independence. I expect Westminster would want to allow Scottish people to vote in that!
Comments about the media coverage doesn’t wholly tally with my experience. While I did the week monitoring of R4 Today there was little reference to the Independence Referendum (as verified form comments I got from listeners in England). Indeed BBC presenter Jim Naughtie acknowledged this and asserted that coverage would ‘greatly increase’ in the subsequent period. The over-overwhelmingly London-centric UK media made sure during the referendum that an ‘English’ voice of a sort was much heard. Coverage then intensified much later on… once it dawned on the London-centric media and politicians that a Yes vote had become a distinct possibility – mainly due to their inept conduct. As so often is the case, the UK media only gave the topic prominence when the interests of London-centric elites were being effected. It’s often overlooked that had there been a Scottish vote in favour of independence there would almost certainly had to have been a subsequent referendum (or general election?) at which the terms of any seperation would have to be voted on by the rest of the UK.
I think that given that less than 10% of Westminster MPs are Scottish and that it is Murdoch and the BBC who control the media in England (and Scotland), your anger may be somewhat mis-directed.
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