European elections 2019: what will happen in Yorkshire and the Humber?
By 22/05/2019 0 Comments Read More →

European elections 2019: what will happen in Yorkshire and the Humber?

Despite the region’s reputation as a Labour heartland in Westminster politics, at the last European Parliament elections UKIP came a clear first here, winning three of its six seats. That vote has switched now to the Brexit Party, who look likely to achieve the same feat. Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Greens are all strong contenders for one seat each. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list in this PR election, which takes place tomorrow, 23 May, the Democratic Audit team reviews the likely outcomes for the parties and looks at who the potentially electable candidates are.

Posted in: European Parliament elections 2019
European elections 2019: what will happen in the East Midlands?
By 21/05/2019 2 Comments Read More →

European elections 2019: what will happen in the East Midlands?

The East Midlands was a UKIP heartland area during the party’s peak years of 2013–14, and 59% of its voters backed Leave in the Brexit referendum. UKIP topped the poll here in the last European parliament elections, but their supporters have almost all now switched to the Brexit Party. According to the latest polling, they are guaranteed two of the region’s five seats. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are almost certain of a seat each. The last of the region’s five seats will depend on whether the Conservatives’ vote collapse can be stemmed. If not, Farage’s party will likely pick it up. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list, the Democratic Audit team reviews likely outcomes and the main potentially electable candidates.

Posted in: European Parliament elections 2019
European elections 2019: what will happen in the West Midlands?
By 21/05/2019 0 Comments Read More →

European elections 2019: what will happen in the West Midlands?

In 2014 the West Midlands region split its votes and seats three ways, with UKIP first and winning three seats, and Labour and the Conservatives somewhat behind and gaining two seats each. In 2019 all the polling indications are that this Eurosceptic region is getting strongly behind the new Brexit Party; it can be sure of winning three of the region’s seven seats, and might even win four. If they are held to three, then the other four seats are likely to be shared out evenly between Labour, the Conservatives, the Lib Dems and the Greens. The vote share gaps separating these parties are small, however, and there is enough polling volatility for the precise outcome still to change. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list, the Democratic Audit team reviews likely outcomes for the parties and the main potentially electable candidates.

Posted in: European Parliament elections 2019
European elections 2019: what will happen in the East of England region?
By 20/05/2019 1 Comments Read More →

European elections 2019: what will happen in the East of England region?

Traditionally this is a Conservative region at Westminster elections. Yet the East of England is strongly Eurosceptic and UKIP came top here in the last European Parliament elections in 2014, although the Tories hung on (just) to three seats. The Brexit Party now look certain to take over the UKIP vote and comfortably come first: on current polls they are guaranteed three of the region’s seven seats, and possibly one more. The latest polling indicates that Labour and the Liberal Democrats look assured of a single seat each. So the main uncertainty hangs on just how dominant the Brexit Party vote will be, whether the Tories’ slump means that they lose all of their seats here, and whether the Greens can pick up a seat. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list, the Democratic Audit team reviews likely outcomes for the parties and the main potentially electable candidates.

Posted in: European Parliament elections 2019
European Parliament elections 2019: what will happen in Wales?
By 20/05/2019 0 Comments Read More →

European Parliament elections 2019: what will happen in Wales?

When electing MEPs to serve in the European Parliament, Wales has been at least a five-party system for a decade. In both the last two contests the top four parties (Labour, UKIP, the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru) each gained one of the four MEPs, and the Liberal Democrats and Greens lost out. This time around the Brexit Party has replaced UKIP and is doing so well that it should gain two seats to Labour’s and Plaid Cymru’s one each. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list, the Democratic Audit team reviews likely outcomes and the candidates that could be elected here.

Posted in: European Parliament elections 2019
European elections 2019: what will happen in England’s South West?
By 18/05/2019 3 Comments Read More →

European elections 2019: what will happen in England’s South West?

In recent years the South West of England has become a Conservative stronghold, as the opposition from the Liberal Democrats in rural areas dwindled, restoring an older pattern of Labour challenging from the few big cities like Bristol, Plymouth and Exeter. However, in European Parliament elections, UKIP came first in 2014, winning two of the region’s six seats, and helping shape a strong Leave vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum – an inheritance that now falls to the Brexit Party. With regional Conservative support now at unprecedentedly low levels, the three strong pro-Remain parties are vying to get two seats between them. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list, the Democratic Audit team reviews likely outcomes and the main potentially electable candidates.

Posted in: European Parliament elections 2019
European Parliament elections 2019: what will happen in the North West of England?
By 17/05/2019 3 Comments Read More →

European Parliament elections 2019: what will happen in the North West of England?

The North West is traditionally a stronghold for Labour, who came first and took three of the region’s eight seats the last time European Parliament elections were held in 2014. This time, however, the Brexit Party are outperforming UKIP’s past success in this area, and will win multiple seats from the region’s majority of pro-Leave voters in the 2016 referendum. The Conservative’s decline opens up a chance for one of the three strong pro-Remain parties to also win a seat, with the Lib Dems looking strongest and the Greens in with a chance of a seat. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list, the Democratic Audit team reviews likely outcomes for the parties and the main potentially electable candidates.

Posted in: European Parliament elections 2019
European elections 2019: what will happen in London?
By 16/05/2019 1 Comments Read More →

European elections 2019: what will happen in London?

With eight seats to play for, London is the jewel in the crown of the European Parliament elections, and the area certain to get most media attention. Long a bastion of Remainers (voting 60:40 to stay in Europe in 2016) the capital has also been increasingly strong for Labour in recent years. However, Corbyn’s ambiguity over his EU stance seems to have recently begun to erode the party’s standing, especially for the European Parliament elections. Two recent polls give the Liberal Democrats two seats, and one has them beating Labour into first place. Brexit Party poll ratings are relatively weak in the capital, but they are still on track to win two seats. The Greens and Tories seem sure of winning a seat each. And Change UK still has some chance here. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list in this PR election, the Democratic Audit team reviews the likely outcomes for the parties, and looks at who the potentially electable candidates are.

Posted in: European Parliament elections 2019
European elections 2019: what will happen in England’s North East region?
By 16/05/2019 3 Comments Read More →

European elections 2019: what will happen in England’s North East region?

Although the European Parliament elections are proportional ones, in a small region of three seats like the North East only the top two or three parties can hope to win a single seat, and only a strong party (with more than 30% support) can hope to win two. So this will likely be the least proportional region in the upcoming European Parliament elections, which take place on 23 May – and one of those where tactical voting is most useful. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list, the Democratic Audit team reviews likely outcomes for the parties and the main potentially electable candidates.

Posted in: European Parliament elections 2019
Elections to the European Parliament: what if more people voted?
By 15/05/2019 3 Comments Read More →

Elections to the European Parliament: what if more people voted?

Can the rise of Eurosceptic and extremist parties be blamed on the mobilisation of people who previously had abstained from the polls? An analysis of the 2009 and 2014 elections to the European Parliament suggests that support for Eurosceptic parties would be largely unaffected by changes in voter turnout, write Uwe Remer-Bollow, Patrick Bernhagen and Richard Rose. Extremist parties would even have lost vote shares if turnout had reached the higher levels observed at national general elections.

Posted in: Elections and electoral systems, European Parliament elections 2019
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