European Parliament elections 2019
Why do ‘niche parties’ perform so well in European and subnational elections?
Single-issue parties, such as the Brexit Party and Greens, tend to do better in local and European elections across Europe. Emmy Lindstam examines why, and finds that voters are willing to vote switch on an issue they think is overlooked by their preferred party, particularly if they think the stakes are low for that election.
Giving Europe political substance
Following the 2019 European Parliament elections, Mary Kaldor argues that developing substantive democracy in Europe to tame neoliberal globalisation must be the Leitmotif for the coming European term.
The Democracy in Europe Movement (DiEM25) and the limitations of transnational populism
Can you create an electorally successful left populist movement beyond the nation state? Benjamin Moffitt, Benjamin De Cleen, Panos Panayotu and Yannis Stavrakakis examine the transnational populist European movement DiEM25, which stood in several countries in the recent European Parliament elections, and considers its prospects in establishing an electorally competitive movement at the transnational level.
#DeniedMyVote – why many EU citizens were unable to vote in the European Parliament elections
On Thursday 23 May, the UK participated in European Parliament elections. Citizens of all EU countries should be able to vote in these elections in the country they live, but many non-UK EU citizens found they had been excluded from the electoral register and were unable to vote. Toby James explains how the government’s long-term failure to improve our electoral laws and short-term pressures led to many people being denied their right to vote.
European elections 2019: what will happen in England’s South East?
This is the UK’s biggest European regional constituency, returning ten MEPs. So it is the area where the most proportional results are feasible, and where smaller parties (those that can reach 6–8% support) have the best chance of gaining a seat. Traditionally a Conservative stronghold in all other elections, UKIP nonetheless came first here in 2014. That inheritance has now passed to the Brexit Party, which fields Nigel Farage as their top candidate and is now certain to win four seats here, and probably a fifth. Since Conservative support has apparently slumped, the Liberal Democrats are sure of winning a seat and should get two if current polls are right. The Tories, Greens and Labour should all get one seat each, and with small increments in support each (plus Change UK) might vie with the Brexit Party for the last of the region’s seats. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list in the election, which takes place on Thursday, 23 May, the Democratic Audit team reviews likely outcomes for the parties and the main potentially electable candidates.
European elections 2019: what will happen in Scotland?
In 2014 four parties won two or one of Scotland’s six seats, with the SNP topping the poll at 29%. This time SNP support is high enough that they are sure of winning three seats, with the Brexit Party also guaranteed a seat. The remaining two seats are up for grabs between the big two and the other parties (Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Greens). With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list in this PR election, which takes place tomorrow, 23 May, the Democratic Audit team reviews the likely outcomes for the parties, and looks at who the potentially electable candidates are.
European elections 2019: what will happen in Yorkshire and the Humber?
Despite the region’s reputation as a Labour heartland in Westminster politics, at the last European Parliament elections UKIP came a clear first here, winning three of its six seats. That vote has switched now to the Brexit Party, who look likely to achieve the same feat. Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Greens are all strong contenders for one seat each. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list in this PR election, which takes place tomorrow, 23 May, the Democratic Audit team reviews the likely outcomes for the parties and looks at who the potentially electable candidates are.
European elections 2019: what will happen in the East Midlands?
The East Midlands was a UKIP heartland area during the party’s peak years of 2013–14, and 59% of its voters backed Leave in the Brexit referendum. UKIP topped the poll here in the last European parliament elections, but their supporters have almost all now switched to the Brexit Party. According to the latest polling, they are guaranteed two of the region’s five seats. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are almost certain of a seat each. The last of the region’s five seats will depend on whether the Conservatives’ vote collapse can be stemmed. If not, Farage’s party will likely pick it up. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list, the Democratic Audit team reviews likely outcomes and the main potentially electable candidates.
European elections 2019: what will happen in the West Midlands?
In 2014 the West Midlands region split its votes and seats three ways, with UKIP first and winning three seats, and Labour and the Conservatives somewhat behind and gaining two seats each. In 2019 all the polling indications are that this Eurosceptic region is getting strongly behind the new Brexit Party; it can be sure of winning three of the region’s seven seats, and might even win four. If they are held to three, then the other four seats are likely to be shared out evenly between Labour, the Conservatives, the Lib Dems and the Greens. The vote share gaps separating these parties are small, however, and there is enough polling volatility for the precise outcome still to change. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list, the Democratic Audit team reviews likely outcomes for the parties and the main potentially electable candidates.
European elections 2019: what will happen in the East of England region?
Traditionally this is a Conservative region at Westminster elections. Yet the East of England is strongly Eurosceptic and UKIP came top here in the last European Parliament elections in 2014, although the Tories hung on (just) to three seats. The Brexit Party now look certain to take over the UKIP vote and comfortably come first: on current polls they are guaranteed three of the region’s seven seats, and possibly one more. The latest polling indicates that Labour and the Liberal Democrats look assured of a single seat each. So the main uncertainty hangs on just how dominant the Brexit Party vote will be, whether the Tories’ slump means that they lose all of their seats here, and whether the Greens can pick up a seat. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list, the Democratic Audit team reviews likely outcomes for the parties and the main potentially electable candidates.
Democratic Audit's core funding is provided by the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust. Additional funding is provided by the London School of Economics.